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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-11-07 03:52:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * FLORIDA KEYS * FLORIDA BAY * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-11-06 21:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062059 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-11-06 21:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062054 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 86.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-11-06 16:00:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 417 WTNT44 KNHC 061500 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized convection in a large band over its northern and eastern quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon, and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in those directions. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.8N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-11-06 15:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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