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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 33

2020-11-08 16:00:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081500 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level center has become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass. Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta's center has moved back over water and is now located just offshore the east-central coast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairly impressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way around the center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflow has expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that the shear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level air impinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 kt and reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interacting with a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough that extends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough is forecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will act to turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward later tonight. The complex interaction between these two features is forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3. Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying solutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest (UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastward motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Z interpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolater possibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn that Eta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisory track and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS and UKMET model tracks. Now that Eta's center is back over water, gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models are forecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across the center for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutoff low and into a col small region region between the low and an upper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the shear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shear will likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extend out 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not always representative of the wind flow near the center. With favorable low-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 deg C, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to dry mid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core and inhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone. For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hours and a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 kt or Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However, it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate into Eta's inner core later today, then the cyclone could become a hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For this reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Keys. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.5N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 33

2020-11-08 15:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 081456 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 79.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 32

2020-11-08 09:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080849 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island. Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it emerges off the north coast of Cuba. Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 32

2020-11-08 09:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080846 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY * FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 79.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 31

2020-11-08 03:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta has continued to strengthen. An abbreviated mission found that the pressure had dropped to 991 mb, with believable SFMR winds of 55 kt. Since the plane left, the cloud pattern has not become better organized, and perhaps some shear is affecting the cyclone. Thus, the initial wind speed is kept at 55 kt. The storm continues to move to the northeast tonight. While the overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond. It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward and faster shifts are possible. I should mention that even if the forecast does shift farther south, tropical-storm-force winds will likely cover much of the southern and central Florida peninsula due to the expected growth of Eta. Beyond Florida, this one of those times where the track uncertainty is much larger than normal, so check back tomorrow for further updates as big long-range changes are possible. Eta is likely to maintain its intensity before landfall in Cuba, then weaken somewhat due to the rugged terrain there. The storm should re-intensify over the Florida Straits in moderate shear conditions but with favorable forcing from the upper-level low. No change has been made to the intensity forecast near Florida, and Eta is likely to be near or at hurricane-strength there. Over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some dry air entrainment could briefly cause some weakening, but the system is forecast to move very slowly over the warm waters. In fact, a large portion of the guidance actually show it re-gaining hurricane strength as it moves farther away from any cooler shelf waters near Florida and sits over the Loop Current. While it seems pre-mature to raise the forecast much due to the large track uncertainty, the forecast is bumped up on days 3-4, but is below the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential minor to isolated moderate river flooding in Central Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin Sunday afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect. 4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch area should follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.7N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 22.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 09/1200Z 24.9N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.0N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 25.5N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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