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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 47
2020-11-12 03:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 120244 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA GRANDE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND GEORGIA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 83.4W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 46
2020-11-11 22:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 112143 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 46...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Corrected to show dissipated at 72H. Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the significant convection around the center this afternoon until a slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity. The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River. Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next 12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters, in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal interaction. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west and north Florida through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.3N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 46
2020-11-11 22:43:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112142 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 14/1800Z CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-11-11 21:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 112050 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 The deep convection associated with Theta has been trying to wrap around the cyclone's low-level center today, and the system consists of a large curved band feature with clouds tops as cold as -65 degrees C. There was no complete sampling of the cyclone's circulation by the scatterometers today. However, a partial ASCAT-C overpass this morning showed that 40-45 kt winds were occurring in the eastern semicircle. This portion of the circulation has previously been the weaker portion of Theta, which suggests some higher winds could be occurring in the western semicircle. Therefore, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt. Theta appears to be holding its own in an environment of strong southwesterly shear and over relatively cool water temperatures of about 24 degrees C, within a favorable unstable atmosphere. The cyclone will be traversing over progressively cooler waters over the next couple of days, and the shear is expected to only abate slightly. These somewhat counteracting factors should either allow Theta to maintain its intensity or slowly weaken during that time. Over the weekend, the upper-level winds are expected to increase and shift out of the north, and force more stable air across the cyclone. This should cause the convection to become displaced to the south of the center and gradually dissipate. The GFS/CMC/ECMWF simulated satellite imagery all indicate that the system should degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains near the various multimodel consensus aids. The storm is moving east-northeastward at around 11 kt, steered by mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is expected to remain in place for the next couple of days. Model guidance is trending slower over the weekend, as they are indicating that the ridge will weaken at around the same time that the shear vector becomes northerly. This would cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn to the right, which is now indicated in the official forecast. However, the latest NHC track remains a little north of the consensus track guidance during that time frame. By the end of the forecast period, an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated front should pick up what remains of Theta and begin to accelerate it to the northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 30.5N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 31.1N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 31.5N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 31.9N 25.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 32.1N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 31.8N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 31.7N 19.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 35.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-11-11 21:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 266 WTNT25 KNHC 112045 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 32.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.1N 30.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 27.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.9N 25.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.1N 23.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 21.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 19.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 31.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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