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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 101452 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta continues to exhibit a mix of tropical and subtropical characteristics. The cyclone has a fairly compact radius of maximum winds with a central dense overcast over the northern portion of the circulation. However, there is a strong subtropical jet located just to the south of Theta, and strong upper-level winds in the surrounding environment in the presence of an upper trough. Based on this inconclusive data, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm for this advisory. An ASCAT-B overpass this morning revealed 50-kt winds in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with several 55-60 kt wind vectors, some of those vectors outside of the deep convection making them more believable. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been set to 60 kt. The storm is moving just north of due east, or 085/13 kt. Theta should continue to be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The latest model guidance is a little faster and slightly north of the previous forecast track, and so the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly as well. Theta is still expected to transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next couple of days, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one primarily due to the higher initial intensity, and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.0N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 101452 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 37.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:51:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 885 WTNT24 KNHC 101451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-10 09:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-11-10 09:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 100847 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 39.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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