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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-11-06 09:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060836 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone. The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-11-06 09:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060836 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-11-06 03:54:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060254 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has not become any better organized during the past several hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated into a broad low or trough, there isn't enough evidence to break continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to provide a better look at the low-level circulation. The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough interaction. Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend, it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that range. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-11-06 03:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060252 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-11-06 03:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060232 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Odalys has been devoid of any significant convection within 100 n mi of the center for more than 12 hours, and the system no longer meets the satellite-based criteria of a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an expected gradual spin down of the circulation, which is supported by a Dvorak current-intensity satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt. An earlier 1725Z ASCAT-A pass contained a small patch of 34-kt winds located northwest of the center, and there is currently no convection in that same sector of the cyclone. Post-tropical Odalys is currently located over marginal 26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures and within a very hostile vertical wind shear regime. The shear is expected to increase from the current 35 kt to more than 40 kt by 24 hours, which should prevent any significant and/or persistent convection from redeveloping near the low-level center. As a result, Odalys should continue to weaken and dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. A westward motion should continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest by Friday afternoon, with that motion continuing into the weekend until Odalys dissipates. The NHC official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track model TVCE. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odalys. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.6N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.0N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 16.4N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 15.9N 127.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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