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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-11-11 09:54:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110854 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 43

2020-11-11 03:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time, the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight. Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model guidance. Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional warnings could be required early Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed overnight. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 23.8N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 25.0N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 27.7N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 28.8N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 29.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 14/0000Z 30.3N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0000Z 30.8N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-11-11 03:47:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110247 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection with Theta has waned some since the previous advisory, with the coldest cloud tops now focused in a band on the northeastern side of the partially exposed circulation. Despite this decrease in convective coverage, a 2304 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a large region of 50 kt winds with at least one 55 kt barb. Accounting for a bit of undersampling of this instrument and maintaining continuity with the previous advisory, the maximum sustained winds have been kept at 60 kt for this advisory. Theta has slowed a bit tonight on the same east-northeast heading at 075/10 kt. The steering philosophy in the first part of the forecast has remained the same, with Theta moving off to the east-northeast while it continues to round the northern edge of a mid-level ridge providing the steering flow. The latest track guidance has slowed down the forward motion a bit more this cycle, and the new track forecast splits the difference between the previous forecast and some of the more reliable global model guidance that is slower and south of the NHC track. At the end of the forecast period both the ECMWF and GFS are forecasting Theta to become a shallow vortex as the remaining convection is stripped away, and this could cause Theta to slow down in the weaker low-level flow and move more slowly to the northeast at the end of the forecast period. Despite moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures over the next 48-72 h, upper-level temperatures are also forecast to cool per GFS-SHIPS, which should provide enough instability for moderate to deep convection. In addition, vertical wind shear may decrease some in the 48-72 h period as Theta remains in light flow along an upper-level trough axis. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance for the first three days, but now shows a faster weakening trend thereafter as vertical wind shear increases out of the north and strips the remaining convection away. At 5 days the forecast now makes Theta a remnant low since it appears the circulation will be too shallow to take advantage of more favorable baroclinic conditions that would ordinarily allow for extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 29.4N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-11-11 03:44:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 110244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.8W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 115SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 25SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 35.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 42

2020-11-10 21:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 102052 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Eta's convective structure has changed little since the previous advisory. A CDO-like feature with cloud tops colder than -70C has persisted, with some overshooting tops of -80C to -85C located east and southeast of the center. Recent passive microwave satellite data indicates that Eta is still sheared from the northwest, with an intermittent mid-level eye feature showing up. Satellite classifications have essentially remained unchanged, with SAB reporting 45-55 kt and TAFB reporting 55 kt. The initial intensity remains at 50 kt based on a blend of these satellite classifications and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimates of 45-48 kt. The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding Eta's poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN and NOAA-HCCA. Eta is forecast to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear environment and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 36 hours or so. Intermittent entrainment of dry mid-level air should prevent any rapid strengthening from occurring, but Eta could still become a hurricane between in 24 to 36 h before more significant shear begins to affect the cyclone. By day 3 and beyond, increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs should cause Eta to weaken. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours. Due to the expected northwesterly shear after 36 hours, the 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the eastern semicircle, which is the side of the cyclone where most of the deep convection and associated stronger winds will be located. Given this and the eastward adjustment to the track forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida west coast, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches may be needed tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida today and tonight, then potentially spread up the west coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Thursday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 23.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

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