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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-11-11 15:44:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 111444 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection, with the convective mass located primarily to the north of the center due to strong shear. A recent partial ASCAT overpass showed a slight decrease in the winds over the eastern semicircle. However, the pass did not sample the western portion of the circulation which has previously had the strongest winds. Based on the slightly lower ASCAT values, and the assumption that the rest of the vortex has spun down slightly due to the lack of convection over the center, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt. Theta is moving east-northeastward at 9 kt, steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is expected to remain in place through much of the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast weaken ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This would cause the cyclone to slow its forward motion temporarily before it gets picked up by the trough. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, and is a little slower during days 4-5 due to the slowing of the guidance. This latest forecast is very near the clustered track consensus models. Despite the strong shear and cool water temperatures, the instability aloft should continue to support deep convection for at least the next few days. The shear is forecast to lessen somewhat in a day or so, but will still be relatively strong. Since the cyclone has been weakening slowly in the current environment, it is anticipated that the pace of weakening may lessen during the next few days with the decrease in shear. Beyond that time, the upper-level winds are forecast to become more northerly, and at about the same time the instability is forecast to decrease. These factors should cause any remaining convection to dissipate, with Theta likely becoming post-tropical by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward from the previous one mainly due to the lower initial intensity and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 29.8N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-11-11 15:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 818 WTNT25 KNHC 111443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 33.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 44
2020-11-11 09:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110859 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data on both the initial position and intensity. It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north- northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine, but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just east of the model consensus. Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida. However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may be needed today. 3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West Florida through Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 110855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020 Convection associated with Theta has decreased further this morning, with strong southwesterly shear displacing the remaining convection to the north of the center. Based on the decreased organization, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt. Theta has continued to slow its forward speed, with the initial motion now 075/7. The cyclone is being steered by the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 72 h or so. After that time, the global models suggest that the cyclone should shear apart, with the remnant low-level circulation moving northeastward on the southeast side of a deep-layer cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous track. While the cyclone is currently experiencing strong shear, the global models show that this might diminish somewhat during the next 72 h as Theta moves into an area of light winds near an upper-level trough axis. This, combined with sufficient instability for deep convection, should allow the storm to change little in strength during this time. After 72 h, strong mid- to upper-level northerly flow should cause the system to weaken as the convection dissipates and the upper-level portion of the storm is pushed off to the south. The new intensity forecast is lowered a bit from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 29.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 44
2020-11-11 09:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DRY TORTUGAS * BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 84.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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