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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 26

2020-10-25 09:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250836 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce inner-core convection. Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will be over much colder SSTs later this morning. This, along with an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or so. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic within 48 hours. The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the larger extratropical low Monday night. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 42.8N 53.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-10-25 09:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250835 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 570SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...210NE 320SE 350SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 180SE 160SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 360NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 53.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-10-25 03:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250251 CCA TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 510SE 540SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-10-25 03:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 774 WTNT43 KNHC 250248 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Corrected timing in Key Message number 3 Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity. As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual. If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf. After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.9N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-10-25 03:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.2N 83.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 83.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.7N 84.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.2N 88.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 25.4N 90.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 83.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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