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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-10-24 16:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241458 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......180NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..470NE 450SE 420SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 290SE 260SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 350SE 350SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. 34 KT...330NE 370SE 400SW 430NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-24 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240836 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 390SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 62.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-10-24 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT.......170NE 70SE 70SW 130NW. 34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW. 34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-10-23 22:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232051 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-10-23 22:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232050 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT.......150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 120SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. 34 KT...260NE 260SE 160SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 160SE 120SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 370SE 330SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 410SE 420SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...260NE 410SE 540SW 540NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 61.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN

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