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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-10-25 03:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250234 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection, but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data. The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is expected through this period, but the global models indicate that Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week. The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast remains high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 24

2020-10-24 22:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 513 WTNT42 KNHC 242056 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of 60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough. After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the 24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it merges with a larger low to its north in a few days. Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt. The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 39.4N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 24

2020-10-24 22:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242055 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT.......180NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. 34 KT.......370NE 290SE 200SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 520SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 59.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 310SE 250SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 360SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 370SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-10-24 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PINAR DEL RIO CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 83.0W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-10-24 16:59:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 543 WTNT42 KNHC 241459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100 UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind relationships. Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered track guidance. The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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