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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-18 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 71.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-09-17 22:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-09-17 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 17 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 17 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 71.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 71.9W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...390NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 71.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-09-15 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150235 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nicholas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observation indicate that the center of Nicholas is over the Beaumont/Port Arthur area of southeastern Texas. The cyclone is currently comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers, with a few patches of deep convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a combination of Doppler radar data and surface obs, and these winds are mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Nicholas should continue to weaken due to strong shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low after 24 h and dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that some of the track guidance models show enough south of east motion to bring the center back over the Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. However, even if this should occur the shear and dry air should prevent any re-development. The initial motion is 060/5. While there is some spread in the guidance, it generally agrees on a slow eastward motion for 36 h or so, followed by a northward drift. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Although the winds associated with Nicholas are subsiding, due to the forecast slow motion, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. The is the last advisory on Nicholas issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will diminish tonight. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along portion of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 30.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 150234 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 94.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 94.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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