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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-19 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-09-19 04:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190231 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those models near the consensus aids. Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-09-19 04:30:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 53.1W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-09-18 22:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 221 WTNT45 KNHC 182034 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity. The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.1N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-18 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182034 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 65.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 42.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.7N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 120SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.0N 47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...270NE 60SE 150SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.4N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.2N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 65.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number advisory forecast cyclone

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