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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Strong shear of about 30 kt from the west-southwest continues to push all of Odette's deep convection well to the east of the surface center. The center itself lacks some definition, with multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common point. Odette is well on its way through the extratropical transition process, with cold air advection noted on the west side of the circulation, and a band of overcast clouds on the north side of the developing warm front. We're awaiting some new ASCAT data, which should arrive soon, and for now the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on continuity. Odette is being picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies, and it is moving a little faster toward the northeast, or 055/15 kt. The cyclone should turn to the east-northeast and accelerate further later today, but then a significant slow down is expected on days 3 through 5 when Odette detaches from the mid-latitude flow and meanders to the southeast of Newfoundland. In contrast to yesterday, the global models are in much better agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has been hedged in the direction of the GFEX consensus aids, since the GFS and ECMWF global models should have a good handle on the behavior of an extratropical cyclone. The global models vary slightly on when extratropical transition will be complete, but the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it should happen by this evening or tonight. Baroclinic forcing will likely be the main contributor to Odette's expected strengthening over the next few days, and the intensity models, including the GFS and ECMWF global models, have been consistent in showing the peak winds reaching about 55 kt in 36-48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to occlude and lose its upper-air support in about 48 hours, which should lead to gradual weakening through the end of the 5-day forecast period. Odette's wind field is expected to expand significantly during the next few days while the system becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 38.5N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-18 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181448 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 67.3W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.0N 64.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.8N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 42.7N 56.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 42.8N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.2N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N 49.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...270NE 0SE 180SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.3N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 42.7N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-18 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180836 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 18 2021 Odette does not look very much like a tropical cyclone. All of the deep convection continues to be displaced well to the east of the poorly-defined center due to strong westerly shear. The circulation is elongated from southwest to northeast and contains multiple low-cloud swirls. The current intensity of the system is estimated to be near 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer observations, and these stronger winds are occurring in the convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, well removed from the center. Since the center is not so easy to locate, the motion is rather uncertain. However the system appears to be accelerating and the initial motion estimate is roughly 050/13 kt. Odette is embedded within the flow on the south side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This steering pattern should carry the system northeastward to east-northeastward for the next couple of days. Afterwards, the trough is predicted by the global models to cut off to the south of eastern Newfoundland. As a result, Odette is likely to turn a little south of east and decelerate in 3-4 days. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to begin moving northeastward on the east side of the cutoff low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one but a little farther south around days 4 and 5. This is in good agreement with the latest corrected model consensus. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Odette will get even stronger over the next few days. As the system will soon begin to move over the cooler waters to the north of the Gulf Stream, its primary energy source should come from baroclinicity. In about 24 hours, the dynamical guidance shows significant thermal advection around the cyclone, signifying its extratropical transition. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone deepening through 48 hours and the official forecast calls for some strengthening up to that time. Later in the period, as the baroclinic energy source appears to wane, gradual weakening is expected. As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend and into Monday, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday as a strong post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 38.0N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-18 10:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180835 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR ODETTE'S POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO NEWFOUNDLAND AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 69.3W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.8N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.4N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 43.3N 54.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 43.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 270SE 210SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...360NE 300SE 240SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 42.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.0N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Odette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-18 04:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 Satellite images indicate that west-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Odette. Deep convection has been separating from the low-level circulation, and the closest area of thunderstorms is now more than 100 miles east of the center. The circulation is rather broad, but there is a clear center a couple of hundred miles off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. A very recent ASCAT pass showed some stronger winds in the thunderstorms more than a couple of hundred miles east of the low-level center, but its not clear if those winds are reliable and representative of the storm's true intensity. Hopefully more scatterometer data with be available soon to better assess Odette's strength. Although it appears that Odette has been meandering lately, a 12-hour average yields a northeastward motion at about 9 kt. The storm is expected to move faster northeastward or east-northeastward off the northeast U.S. and Atlantic Canada coasts this weekend as it moves in the mid-latitude flow. After that time, the models show a significant slow down as the cyclone cuts off from the progressive flow to the south or southeast of Newfoundland. Although there is quite a bit of spread in the models from days 3-5, almost all of the guidance shows the storm stalling by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. This forecast still lies to the north of the consensus aids, however. Odette is already beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, and it will likely complete the transition by Saturday night when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream Current and merging with an approaching trough. The cyclone is likely to reach its peak intensity as an extratropical storm in 48-60 hours when the baroclinic dynamics are most favorable. Gradual weakening seems likely beyond that time. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the majority of the guidance. As Odette becomes fully extratropical and gains latitude this weekend, the wind field is forecast to expand significantly. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 36.4N 71.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 37.8N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 39.4N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z 41.0N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 42.3N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/1200Z 43.4N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 43.8N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 44.3N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z 44.8N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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