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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-14 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142056 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that the intensity of Nicholas has remained steady over the past several hours despite having moved a little farther inland over the upper Texas coastal plain. Both satellite and radar data also indicate that the overall circulation has tightened up somewhat, although a large swath of stable low clouds have advected into most of the southern semicircle of Nicholas' circulation. The highest sustained wind speeds of 34-36 kt have occurred in a narrow band of fragmented, shallow convection between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, during the past couple of hours. Doppler radar velocity data from Lake Charles has also indicated wind speeds of 40-45 at 3,000 ft altitude just offshore the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1003 mb is based on nearby surface observations, especially the reports from the Eagle Point, Texas, C-MAN station, which indicate that the center of Nicholas passed over or near that station between 1800-1900 UTC. As Nicholas moves farther inland, gradual weakening is forecast due to land interaction, entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, and strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression later this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday or early Thursday. The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070 degrees at 5 kt. Nicholas is forecast by most of the global and regional models continue its east-east-northeastward motion through tonight, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday. Nicholas could still stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses on Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus track models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will gradually subside, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will gradually diminish into tonight. 3. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area long portions of the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts will gradually subside by this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 29.6N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-14 22:51:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 142051 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 94.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 94.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 94.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-14 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken while moving farther inland. The strongest winds recently reported near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt at a TCOON observing station near Sabine Pass, Texas. The strongest winds over water south of southwestern Louisiana are based on Doppler radar average velocities of 45-50 kt between 5000-7500 ft. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on nearby surface observations in the Houston metropolitan area. Further weakening is expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear. The latter condition is expected to cause the low- and upper-level circulation to decouple in about 24 hours, which will hasten the weakening process. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, and Nicholas is now expected to become a tropical depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday. Nicholas is now moving northeastward or 050 degrees at a slower forward speed of 5 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by tonight, and move eastward more slowly on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory tack. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will be weakening, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 29.6N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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US Natural Gas Futures Jump to Seven-year High on Rising Demand Forecast
2021-09-14 11:20:00| OGI
Front-month natural gas futures rose 29.3 cents, or 5.9%, to settle at $5.231 per MMBtu, their highest close since February 2014.
Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-14 10:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours, with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously. Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land, with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so. Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts, most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern Louisiana coast by afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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