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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-13 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132038 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 96.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-13 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 131436 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center, while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas' northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent surface winds. The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction. Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted, recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas. However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass by late afternoon through tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coast of south Texas into the afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-13 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 131435 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO SABINE PASS...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SABINE PASS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA * CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 96.8W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 96.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 96.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-13 10:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130850 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Radar data from Brownsville shows that the center of Nicholas is on the southwestern side of a large area of deep convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. While southwesterly shear continues to affect the storm, the radar presentation has recently improved, with what could be the start of a partial eyewall forming in the northern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level winds of 59 kt, believable SFMR values up to 50 kt, along with radar winds at 5000 ft near 60 kt. The storm is moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. Nicholas is forecast to turn northward soon into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track prediction is only nudged slightly westward from the previous one through landfall, consistent with recent model guidance. Thereafter, there isn't good agreement among the models on how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. Generally the models are faster this cycle, which seems believable given the large northward re-formation earlier likely exposing Nicholas to stronger mid-latitude flow. Thus the new NHC forecast is trended faster as well, but remains behind the model consensus. Obviously the forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch. Nicholas should continue to strengthen up until landfall due primarily to the very warm Gulf waters and the recent inner-core improvements. Moderate southwesterly shear and some dry air are the main inhibiting factors and will hopefully keep the strengthening in check. However, it is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane before landfall, and that's the reason for the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-13 10:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 96.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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