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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-09-14 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-14 04:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140249 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon. As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 29

2020-09-14 04:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140246 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt (which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt. Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass through the eye was 976 mb. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times. Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 31.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 29

2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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