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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 727 WTNT43 KNHC 140849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Rene continues to produce just enough deep convection to keep it from degenerating to a remnant low. However, it is expected to degenerate later today due to the ongoing impact of strong west-northwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment. The initial intensity and the intensity forecast, which call for dissipation by 60 h, are unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/3. The shallow cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the low-level flow by 12-24 hours and continue on that general motion until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 10:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 140849 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140847 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Karina continues to be a sheared cyclone with the deep convection displaced to the southwest of the exposed low-level center. Recent scatterometer data showed winds up to 40 kt in the southern semicircle, and thus the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has moved more westward during the past several hours, possibly due to reformation of the center closer to the convection. This motion of 280/11 is expected to be short-lived, as all of the available track guidance indicates that Karina should turn northwestward during the next 24 h, with a northwestward to west-northwestward then expected through 96 h. After that, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn back to the west. The new forecast track is adjusted to the west of the previous track based on the current position and motion, and it lies a bit to the left of the various consensus models. The 96 h point has been nudged a little to the north of the previous forecast based on a northward shift of the guidance at that time. While Karina is likely to continue to feel the effects of northeasterly vertical shear for the next 36 h or so, the new forecast track gives it a little more time over warmer water. Thus, the intensity forecast keeps the door open for some strengthening for 24 h or so. After that, the center should move over cooler water, which should cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low by 96 h and dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.9N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 10:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140847 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 117.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 119.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.3N 120.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 124.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.6N 125.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 118.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 542 WTNT44 KNHC 140254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49 kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity. Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by 72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days. The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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