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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-29 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-29 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Persistent bursts of deep convection continue to develop just to the west of Iselle's center, which occasionally becomes hidden beneath the cirrus outflow (as it is now). Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.0/45 kt based on a shear pattern, and along with what was shown by an afternoon ASCAT pass, Iselle's intensity remains 45 kt. Strong shear from the east-northeast is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the shear should relax, but then the thermodynamic environment becomes more limiting with Iselle moving over sub-26C waters and into a much more stable environment. All told, Iselle is expected to steadily weaken during the next several days, and it is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and is close to HCCA and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in about 4 days. Iselle is moving slowly north-northeastward (015/5 kt) on the western periphery of a low- to mid-level area of high pressure centered over Mexico. This high, along with a trough extending off the coast of California, should cause Iselle to gradually turn toward the north and then north-northwest with some increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models, and they generally agree on this northward motion with a slight bend to the left through the forecast period. The regional hurricane models appear almost in a cluster all to themselves on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, and the NHC forecast therefore closely follows the TVDG model consensus aid, which gives double weight to the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.3N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.7N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1200Z 24.9N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z 25.6N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-29 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.9N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-28 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations indicate that Hernan has degenerated into a broad low pressure area near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula. The remnant low is forecast to move generally westward for the next 12-24 h until it is absorbed into the monsoon gyre that includes Tropical Storm Iselle. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.2N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282032 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 110.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 110.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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