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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle consists of a rather ragged looking area of deep convection being sheared to the southwest of a partially exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent Iselle from strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken this weekend before degenerating into a remnant low early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN consensus and SHIPS guidance. Iselle is moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southerly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a more northward motion. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre, a turn to the northwest then west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCX track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.0N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-08-27 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271448 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to move inland over west-central Louisiana this morning. Satellite and radar imagery has shown a gradual filling of the eye, and a reduction in Doppler velocities in the northeastern eyewall. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt, based on a reduction of the Doppler velocities and the typical filling rate of inland hurricanes. The highest wind gusts at official observing sites within the past few hours has been at Alexandria, Louisiana, where a gust to 75 kt has been reported. The hurricane is moving slightly east of due north or 005/14 kt. A general northward motion should continue through this evening as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. Laura should turn northeastward overnight while it moves across Arkansas and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A faster east-northeastward motion is forecast by late Friday, which will bring Laura or its remnants across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. After that time, the system is expected to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic. Laura will continue to rapidly weaken today while it moves farther inland. The cyclone will become a tropical storm this afternoon and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or early Friday. Although Laura is weakening, strong wind gusts are likely to spread over northern Louisiana and Arkansas into this evening. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue show the extratropical remnants of Laura strengthening somewhat over the western Atlantic, and the NHC forecast continues to depict the system as a gale-force low at days 3-5. An alternate scenario is for the system to be absorbed by a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic before the end of the forecast period. The extratropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge will result in elevated water levels for the next few hours along the Gulf Coast from Sabine Pass, Texas, to Port Fourchon, Louisiana. In some areas where surge penetrated far inland, flood waters will not fully recede for several days. 2. Damaging winds will continue near the center of Laura over portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas today and this evening. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.9N 93.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-27 16:48:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271448 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 First light visible satellite imagery reveals that Hernan remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection confined to the western semicircle. Even though convection has waned a bit overnight, there appears to be a new cluster developing. Therefore the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, based on the earlier morning ASCAT overpass. Hernan should at least maintain its current strength for the next 12-24 h as it remains over very warm waters while battling moderate easterly shear. This shear is not forecast to abate during the forecast period. And after 24 h, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over progressively cooler waters. The combination of these two factors should induce a weakening trend. By 60 h, simulated satellite imagery by global models suggest that the cyclone will become devoid of deep convection. After that time, the remnant low is expected to be absorbed within the broader circulation of Hernan to its west. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the IVCN/ICON intensity consensus. Hernan has turned to the north-northwest and is moving at about 4 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone will continue to parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening, followed by a northwestward then westward turn tonight and Friday. The westward motion should continue until the system becomes absorbed early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.1N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Latto
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