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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-08-28 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle continues to produce bursts of deep convection in an environment of moderate easterly shear, with the latest round of convection completely covering the low-level center. Since satellite classifications haven't changed much since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is left at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. There is some uncertainty in exactly how strong the shear currently is, with SHIPS diagnostics showing nearly 30 kt while UW-CIMSS is analyzing a little under 20 kt. A recent SSMIS pass showed some defined curved banding, so I'm inclined to think the shear is closer to the lower estimate. With that said, the SHIPS diagnostics do show the shear relaxing just a bit during the next 12-24 hours, which could allow Iselle to strengthen a little, and this scenario is supported by the latest HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, HCCA, and GFS model solutions. After that time, the shear is expected to strengthen again, and then Iselle will be moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one from 24 hours and beyond. Iselle is likely to lose all of its convection and become a remnant low in about 3 days and then open up into a trough by day 5. Iselle is embedded in an elongated mid-level trough which extends northeastward to Tropical Storm Hernan near the coast of Mexico, and its initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/3 kt. The interaction between the two tropical storms is expected to cause Iselle to continue moving north-northeastward or northward during the first 2 days. Once Hernan dissipates and Iselle weakens, a low-level ridge over northern Mexico should cause Iselle to turn toward the northwest and west on days 3 and 4. The track models have shifted a bit to the northeast after 48 hours, leaving the previous forecast near the left side of the guidance envelope, so the new NHC forecast was adjusted closer to the multi-model consensus aids during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.6N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Discussion Number 33

2020-08-28 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Laura Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to spin down after being over land for nearly a day. Surface observations no longer support tropical storm intensity, and therefore the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression. The cyclone should become a post-tropical low within a couple of days, and then transform into an extratropical cyclone while moving off the U.S. east coast. The official forecast shows some restrengthening in 2-4 days due to baroclinic processes. However, by the end of the forecast period, the system should be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone to the east of the Canadian Maritimes. Laura continues to move north-northeastward or at about 015/13 kt. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with increasing forward speed is likely while the cyclone becomes embedded in the stronger westerly flow. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus. There is a continued threat of flooding from Laura for the next couple of days. This is the last NHC advisory on Laura. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Key Messages: 1. Additional rainfall will continue to lead to flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, roadways, and minor to moderate river flooding across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 2. A few tornadoes remain possible this evening across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and the Missouri Bootheel. The risk for a few tornadoes is expected to redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 35.1N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-08-28 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged to the north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Laura Forecast Advisory Number 33

2020-08-28 04:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 92.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.3N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.3N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.5N 67.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 44.0N 60.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 48.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 92.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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