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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the deep convective mass. Last night's briefly diminished shear interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON analysis of 42 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour period and then decrease and veer from the southeast. At that time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable surrounding environment. As a result, Iselle should weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 020/6 kt. A northward direction should commence Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday late night. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 16:47:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery and a recent AMSR2 microwave overpass indicate that deep convection has been developing near the surface center during the past several hours. In fact, the microwave image showed a small, compact inner core defined by a partially closed eye-like feature. My initial thoughts were that this cloud feature is in the mid-portion of the atmosphere, but the lower 37 GHZ frequency confirmed very little vertical tilt. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are based on the shear scene-type which would yield a slightly lower intensity estimation. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, but it could certainly be a little stronger based on the aforementioned polar low-orbiter pass. The FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models show 20 to 30 kt of northeasterly shear persisting through the next few days, however, the UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals less than 20 kt. For now, based on what the large-scale models and the SHIPS models agree on, gradual weakening should begin by early Saturday morning and continue through Monday morning as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic temperatures and moves into a more thermodynamically stable surrounding environment. The NHC intensity is an update of the previous advisory, and calls for Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday evening. Based on the 0920 UTC AMSR2 pass, the initial position was adjusted to the northwest of the previous position and the forward motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 035/4 kt. A northward direction should commence by early Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward to northwestward is forecast during the 48-60 hr period. As Iselle continues to weaken and become a more shallower system, a turn toward the west-northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is forecast to occur Monday morning. The NHC forecast is nudged to the left of the previous track forecast due the adjusted position, and is based on the HCCA and TVCE multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.3N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.2N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.6N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 24.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 24.4N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.6N 114.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281442 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Hernan has become less organized since the last advisory with most of the associated convection dissipating. In addition, surface observations in the coastal areas near the cyclone suggest the possibility that it no longer has a closed circulation, although there are no observations over water to confirm this. Based on decreasing satellite intensity estimates, Hernan is downgraded to a tropical depression. Additional weakening is forecast, and Hernan is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area as it moves over the Baja California peninsula later today and tonight. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough on Saturday. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. Hernan is moving around the northeastern side of the monsoon gyre that contains Tropical Storm Iselle, and a general west-northwestward motion is expected until the system dissipates on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 23.4N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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