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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-02 16:48:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam, the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically affect the cyclone. What remains of the deep convective cloud mass is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using the shear scene-type. Omar's winds should begin to decrease later tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the convective mass. A few of the large-scale models show Omar dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast, I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue on this general course through Friday. On Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 36.2N 67.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-02 16:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021446 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.4W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 62.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.3N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.2N 58.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.4N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.0N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 67.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-02 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021445 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective burst. Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds remain near 50 kt and the central pressure is near 998 mb. The initial motion is westward or 270/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands in about 12 h, then make landfall over Belize in 18-24 h. After that, a generally westward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico. The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall. However, the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows this trend, however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity guidance. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it makes landfall in Belize. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken until it dissipates by the 60 h forecast time. Observations from the NOAA aircraft indicate that Nana remains a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana is expected to bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 84.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-02 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 021444 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 83.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.6N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 93.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-09-02 10:41:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020840 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana's Central Dense Overcast has become a little better defined, with cloud tops to -80 deg C or colder. Upper-level outflow continues to be somewhat inhibited over the northern portion of the circulation. SFMR-observed surface winds and adjusted flight-level winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated an intensity of 50 kt. Although northerly shear is likely to limit intensification, the environment is conducive enough for Nana to strengthen into a hurricane later today. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS prediction based on the ECMWF global model forecast fields. Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that the motion continues to be generally westward, or 270/16 kt, to the south of a strong mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to be maintained or to build a little more to the west. This should keep Nana on a westward or slightly south-of-west track until it moves into Central America. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. Observations from the aircraft and NOAA data buoy 42057 indicate that Nana is a rather small tropical cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 60 n mi or less from the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 82.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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