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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-08-29 22:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours, as the area of convection southwest of the center is now smaller and farther from the center than previously. This is likely due to the combined effects of continued easterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures under the storm. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 kt, but the tropical-storm-force winds are now occurring only over the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. Iselle should turn toward the north during the next several hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track again has minor adjustment from the previous track based mainly on the initial position and motion. The shear and cooler water along the forecast track should cause Iselle to steadily weaken, and the new forecast track has no changes from the previous forecast. The forecast, which calls for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h, again lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.0N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-08-29 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-08-29 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has changed little in organization since the last advisory, as the storm has a classic shear pattern in satellite imagery with the low-level center near the northeastern edge of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little in the last 6 h, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has tracked a little to the right with the initial motion now north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. This should be short lived, and Iselle is expected to resume a northward motion later today or tonight. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track is tweaked a little from the previous forecast based on the initial position and motion. Iselle is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and it continues to experience easterly vertical shear. This combination should cause steady weakening, and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.3N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-08-29 16:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-08-29 10:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is exposed to the east of a decaying and disheveled area of deep convection. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the system's appearance has degraded since that time, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. This value is also in agreement with an average of the latest satellite intensity estimates, which range from 33 to 45 kt. Iselle is feeling the effects of about 25 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to remain strong while Iselle heads for cooler waters and a drier air mass, steady weakening is anticipated. Iselle will likely become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant low on Sunday. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating in 3 days, and so does the official forecast. The compact tropical storm is moving northward at about 5 kt. A continued northward motion is expected for another day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest when Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system and moves in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been modified slightly based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.7N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.5N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z 25.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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