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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-08-30 16:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 301435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 113.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 113.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-08-30 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300836 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020 Iselle has produced very little deep convection since around 00Z. Earlier partial ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt, which is not surprising given Iselle's lack of organization. Iselle is moving into a drier and more stable environment and over progressively cooler SSTs. While some slight redevelopment of convection is possible during the next few hours, it is unlikely to be very well organized and Iselle is forecast become post-tropical later today. The remnants of Iselle will then continue to gradually spin down for another day or two until it dissipates entirely in a couple of days. The cyclone has moved generally north-northeastward to northward during the pas few hours and is slowing down. The guidance is in good agreement that a northward to north-northwestward motion is likely until Iselle dissipates. No changes of note were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 22.3N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.3N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/0600Z 24.2N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1800Z 24.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-08-30 10:31:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300830 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.0W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 114.0W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.9N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 114.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-08-30 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Most of the deep convection associated with Iselle has been displaced to the west of the center due to strong easterly shear caused by a large upper-level anticyclone to the northeast. Based on the decreased organization, it is assumed that the cyclone has been gradually spinning down this evening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt. Although the shear may relax a bit in a day or so, Iselle will be moving over increasingly cooler waters during that time. Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance. The cyclone has been moving north-northeastward, at around 020/8 kt, on the west side of a mid-level high pressure area. The weakening and increasingly shallow system should gradually turn to the left under the influence of the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is about in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 21.8N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-08-30 04:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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