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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-03 10:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 266 WTNT25 KNHC 030844 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-03 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 88.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.3N 95.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 88.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Nana Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-03 04:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030252 TCDAT1 Hurricane Nana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 After the center of Nana nearly became exposed during the late afternoon, a new burst of convection developed near and to the south of the center which has resulted in strengthening this evening. Very recently received data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has indicated that Nana has become a hurricane. The plane has measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt to the north of the center, and peak SFMR winds of 62 kt earlier this evening. These data support an initial intensity of 65 kt, making Nana the fifth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Since Nana should make landfall along the coast of Belize within the next several hours, little additional strengthening is expected before the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after landfall, and the new 12 through 36 hour intensity forecast reflects this. The low-level center is likely to dissipate over mountainous terrain within 48 hours, if not sooner. Nana is moving just south of due west at about 265/14 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west-southwestward motion during the next day or so. The guidance enveloped has shifted slightly southward and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge will spread onshore along portions of the coast of Belize within the Hurricane Warning area through early Thursday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Thursday. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.0N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Nana Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-03 04:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.4N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 A brief and small burst of convection developed near the center of Omar early this evening, only to be quickly sheared well to the southeast of the exposed low-level center. Any new convection that developed during the day has been smaller in coverage and shorter lived, and this trend is expected to continue. The initial intensity is being held at 30 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass showing several peak 30-kt wind vectors in the southern semicircle. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning. Ongoing wind shear of 40-50 kt should not allow any developing convection to persist near Omar's center, and the depression should degenerate to a remnant low sometime on Thursday. This scenario is in agreement with the global model forecasts. A few days from now, the remnant low should dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a larger approaching mid-latitude frontal system. Omar continues to move east at around 13 kt, to the north of a subtropical ridge. An east or just south-of-east motion is forecast through Friday. After that time, the remnants of Omar should turn east-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the approaching mid-latitude frontal system. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and is also near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 36.1N 64.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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