je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-03 04:33:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.7N 59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.5N 58.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.9N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 64.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-02 22:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022038 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Omar's cloud pattern is rapidly deteriorating, and the surface circulation center has become quite ill-defined. This morning's METOP-A/B scatterometer passes revealed only a few 33 kt winds well to the southeast of the center and it's reasonable to determine that those winds are no longer present. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory and is further supported by the subjective satellite intensity T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The latest global model runs agree with the depression degenerating to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Dissipation of the remnant low should occur no later than Saturday evening. Omar's initial motion is estimated to be due east, or 090/13 kt, within the mid-latitude westerlies north of a subtropical ridge stretching east to west over the central Atlantic. Omar should continue moving eastward through Friday, although a couple of the global models are showing a track a bit more east-southeastward. Around the 60 hour period, the remnant low is expected to reduce in forward speed, and turn toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching baroclinic system entering the northwest Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nudged just a little to the right of the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 36.1N 65.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-02 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022037 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 65.7W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.7N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.7N 57.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.9N 56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 65.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-02 22:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022036 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020 Nana continues to feel the effects of about 15 kt of northerly vertical shear, as the low-level center is located near the northern edge of the main convective mass. Data from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission showed that the flight-level winds at 850 mb were a little lower than earlier. However, incomplete SFMR data suggested surface winds near 50 kt, and the aircraft reported that the central pressure is near 999 mb. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, although this could be a little generous. The initial motion is westward or 270/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track, which again is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands this evening, then make landfall over central or southern Belize in about 12-18 h. Nana is running out of time to strengthen before landfall, and between that and the ongoing shear none of the intensity guidance forecasts it to become a hurricane before landfall. However, any strong convective burst could spin up the cyclone, and since the bursts have been frequent today the intensity forecast calls for Nana to strengthen to near hurricane strength at landfall. After landfall, steady weakening is expected. Several of the global models now show the remnants of Nana emerging over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 48-60 h. However, these models continue to forecast dissipation even over water, so the forecast dissipation time is unchanged since the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nana could bring hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge tonight to portions of the coast of Belize, and a hurricane warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Belize, the Bay Islands, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.0N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 22:35:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * THE COAST OF BELIZE NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA * ISLA ROATAN AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 85.9W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.6N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.2N 94.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 85.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [480] [481] [482] [483] [484] [485] [486] [487] [488] [489] [490] [491] [492] [493] [494] [495] [496] [497] [498] [499] next »