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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020839 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 82.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 81.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.8N 87.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.4N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.1N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 82.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-02 10:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020839 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020 UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model diagnostics all indicate that Omar is being blasted by 40-50 kt of northwesterly shear, and yet a sizable area of deep convection has been hanging close to the low-level center for some time now. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications, Omar's initial intensity remains 35 kt. Despite the shear magnitude, Omar could maintain tropical storm intensity for another 24 hours or so while the shear direction remains out of the northwest and the cyclone is over the warm Gulf Stream. During this period, the NHC forecast is close to the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. After 24 hours, Omar should begin moving over waters with lower ocean heat content, and the shear is forecast to veer more out of the north. Both of these factors are expected to cause weakening, with Omar likely to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about 2 days. Global models indicate that the remnant low should dissipate ahead of a cold front by day 4, which is now shown in the NHC forecast, although the ECMWF shows this happening a day earlier. Omar is moving toward the east-northeast (070/12 kt), embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies north of the subtropical ridge. This steering pattern is forecast to keep Omar on an east-northeastward or eastward path until it dissipates, but a breakdown of the zonal flow should cause the cyclone's forward speed to slow down gradually during the next 2-3 days. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward a bit in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids and the GFS and ECMWF solutions, which both lie along the southern edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 36.2N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-02 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020839 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 68.7W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.6N 66.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.3N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.5N 57.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 37.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-02 04:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020237 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small, well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around 999 mb. Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track, Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model. The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-02 04:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO CHETUMAL * ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF GUATEMALA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 80.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 80.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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