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Tropical Depression Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 109.1W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 108.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280831 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Iselle continues to produce deep convection near the center and on its west side. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. An ASCAT-A overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 45-50 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The intensity models suggest that little change in strength is likely today as Iselle remains in the current environment of easterly shear. However, gradual weakening should begin by tonight and continue through the weekend as Iselle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the models, and predicts Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression in a couple of days and to a remnant low shortly thereafter. Iselle is moving slowly northeastward toward Tropical Storm Hernan located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Iselle should generally move northeastward to north-northeastward as it remains embedded in a trough with Hernan for about another day. Thereafter, Hernan is expected to dissipate and a low- to mid-level ridge should cause Iselle to turn to the northwest. This track keeps Iselle well offshore the Baja California peninsula. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-28 10:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 115.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 115.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280809 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this morning. Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds before it quickly weakens and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280808 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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