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Tropical Storm Omar Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-01 22:47:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012047 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 71.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 71.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 72.2W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 36.1N 69.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.7N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 37.2N 63.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 37.2N 61.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.0N 57.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 39.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 71.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-01 18:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011656 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the vigorous disturbance south of Jamaica this morning has found that the system has a well-defined, closed circulation center. The aircraft also measured 60 kt at 925 mb in the northeastern quadrant and reliable SFMR surface winds of 45 kt. Based on these data, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nana, the 14th named tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt, No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Nana has developed a well-defined upper-level anticyclone, with outflow gradually improving in all quadrants. Modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Some dry air intrusions might hinder development for the next 24 hours or so, but the global and regional models still indicate that the atmosphere will moisten thereafter, and continue to moisten right up until landfall. Based on the higher initial intensity and the mostly favorable environmental conditions expected after 24 hours, the peak forecast intensity has been increased to 65 kt at 48 hours, just prior to landfall. Due to the Nana's expected proximity to Belize in 48 hours, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that country. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is now forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1700Z 16.6N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-01 18:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 011647 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1700 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE FROM NORTH OF PUNTA BARRIOS GUATEMALA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * BELIZE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.9W AT 01/1700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 77.9W AT 01/1700Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.7N 82.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-01 17:00:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011500 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16) The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-01 16:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 673 WTNT21 KNHC 011458 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-HONDURAS BORDER...INCLUDING ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHERN HONDURAS * ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 77.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 77.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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