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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-26 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 854 WTPZ23 KNHC 260848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-08-26 04:50:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260250 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops of -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming better established over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane is expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast, with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. This is also between the simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a weakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model predictions. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-08-26 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260249 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 89.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 88.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 89.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-08-25 22:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Satellite imagery shows some changes in the convective pattern of Laura since the last advisory. The ragged central dense overcast seen earlier has been replaced by a curved convective band that wraps almost all the way around a cloud-filled banding-type eve. One possible reason for this change is that the imagery also suggests a tongue of dry air is trying to entrain into the cyclone just west of the central convection. Aircraft data received after the last advisory did not show any fall in the central pressure, but did have high enough flight-level and SFMR winds to justify nudging the initial intensity up to 70 kt. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 300/15 kt. There is no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward this evening, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h, but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later advisories. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States before reaching the Atlantic in about 120 h. All indications are that the hurricane should steadily to rapidly intensify during the next 24 h, with the only negative factor being the possibility of more dry air entrainment. The intensity forecast will go with the scenario that the dry air will not significantly hinder strengthening. The global models are in good agreement that Laura will encounter increasing southwesterly shear in the last 6-12 h before landfall, so the intensity forecast shows slower strengthening during that time. With all that said, the landfall intensity of 100 kt is unchanged from the previous advisory. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point, followed by re-intensification through baroclinic energy as the cyclone becomes extratropical. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion this evening, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will increase due to heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also result in minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 24.7N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...ON COAST 48H 27/1800Z 32.2N 93.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0600Z 34.7N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1800Z 38.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 42.0N 66.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-08-25 17:05:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251505 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Laura has become a little better organized since it crossed western Cuba, and it now has a central dense overcast and some outer banding in the southern quadrant. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds of near 65 kt, 700-mb flight-level winds as high as 77 kt, and a central pressure near 990 mb. Based on these data, Laura has been upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. The hurricane is currently on the south side of a large-deep layer ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by mid- to -upper-level troughing over Texas and the southern Great Plains. The current and forecast synoptic pattern should steer Laura west-northwestward today followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight and toward the north by Wednesday night and Thursday. This will result in the hurricane making landfall in the area of southwestern Louisiana or the upper Texas coast late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The new forecast track before landfall has been nudged a little to the west of the previous track in response to a westward nudge in the guidance. However, it still lies a little east of the consensus models at the time of landfall. After landfall, Laura is expected to recurve into the westerlies and move eastward through the Tennessee Valley and the mid-Atlantic States. The hurricane currently looks a little ragged, with little or no convection outside of the central dense overcast and the southern quadrant banding. This may be due to dry air in the vicinity and some light northerly shear. Conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening during the next 36 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Laura to become a major hurricane during this time. The global model are in good agreement that the hurricane should encounter increasing shear in the last 12 h before landfall, although the potential impacts on the landfall intensity are unclear. After landfall, Laura should weaken through the 96 h point. After that, some re-intensification is expected as the storm becomes extratropical. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity Wednesday night. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's track and intensity predictions. Storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge accompanied by large and dangerous waves from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect and residents should follow any advice given by local officials. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today, as water levels will begin to rise Wednesday. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening in the area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area Wednesday afternoon. 4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding along with small streams overflowing their banks will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 23.7N 87.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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