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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-08-26 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261445 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Earlier scatterometer data and GOES-16 Proxy-VIS satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has acquired sufficient convective organization and a well-defined surface circulation, and is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and the aforementioned scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this advisory. Moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear, the same inhibiting upper wind pattern that is affecting depression Thirteen-E, is forecast to hamper significant development through the entire forecast period. Therefore, only modest strengthening in the next 24 hours is expected, which agrees with the statistical- dynamical guidance and the large-scale models. The depression is moving rather slowly toward the northeast, or 040/2 kt. The low to mid-level steering synoptic pattern consists of a cyclonic gyre stretching southwestward from Hurricane Laura over central Mexico and into the eastern Pacific. This feature should cause the depression to continue in a northeastward general direction at a relatively slow pace through Friday. Afterward, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and west-northwest is expected as high pressure currently over the southwestern U.S. builds westward over the Baja California peninsula and adjacent eastern Pacific. The NHC official forecast is a reflection of a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-08-26 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261444 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 117.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 116.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.4N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 26

2020-08-26 10:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite images indicate that Laura has become a formidable hurricane since yesterday evening. Deep convection has intensified and become more symmetric, with an eye now trying to clear out. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found flight-level winds of 104 kt, along with peak SFMR values of 86 kt, which supported the 90-kt intensity on the intermediate advisory. Since that time, however, the cloud pattern has only continued to improve, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt for this advisory. Notably, the aircraft also recorded that the extent of the hurricane-force winds have increased substantially northeast of the center. A pair of Hurricane Hunter planes should be in the area within a couple of hours. The hurricane has intensified a remarkable 40 kt during the past 24 hours, and there are no signs it will stop soon, with shear remaining low-to-moderate over the deep warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. Guidance is noticeably higher than before, so the new peak intensity will be raised to 115 kt, and some models are even a little higher. Increasing shear is expected to slightly weaken the hurricane close to landfall, so the new forecast keeps the previous 105-kt intensity near the coast. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. In the extended range, there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a tropical cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast, instead of becoming part of a frontal system, but for now the forecast will stay extratropical at 96 hours and beyond. Recent satellite shows that Laura has turned northwestward, now estimated at 13 kt. There are no substantial changes to the track forecast to report. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high. The models are in very good agreement on the center of Laura moving into extreme southwestern Louisiana or southeastern Texas in about 24 hours, so no changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period the weakened cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is shifted southward at longer range, not too far from the latest consensus track model predictions. It should be mentioned Laura is now a large hurricane, and wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Do not use the cone graphic for any representation of these hazards, it is just for the center uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion as water levels will begin to rise later today. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 26.1N 90.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR COAST 36H 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 26

2020-08-26 10:56:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260856 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM FREEPORT TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.4N 92.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.5W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.4N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.4N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 87.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-08-26 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 260849 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Wed Aug 26 2020 The broad area of low pressure that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has become better defined based on a 0356Z ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. Although the system is slightly elongated northeast-to-southwest, the center is well defined and deep convection has persisted west of the center despite strong easterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Thus, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 13-E. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on scatterometer surface wind speeds of 30-32 kt, which are consistent with T2.0/30-kt satellite classifications from TAFB-SAB. The initial motion estimate is slowly north-northeastward or 025/04 kt. The depression is embedded within an east-to-west oriented cyclonic gyre with a high-amplitude mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico. These gyre will cause the cyclone to move slowly northward today and northwestward on Thursday, with the ridge acting as a poleward block and forcing to system to turn west-northwestward to westward on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to remain just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico today and Thursday, and pass near or just south of the southern tip of Baja California Sur on Friday and Saturday. The NHC official track forecast closely follows the simple consensus model TVCE, and lies a little to the left or west of the corrected-consensus model HCCA and the ECMWF model tracks. Strong easterly shear is forecast to persist through the next 24 hours, so little if any strengthening is expected during that time. In fact, convection is likely to erode a little during the day today, and then redevelop closer to the center tonight when the shear begins to abate somewhat. In the 36-60 hour period, the shear is forecast to weaken considerably from the northeast, allowing for some slight strengthening to occur. However, the intensity is not expected to increase to more than 35-40 kt, with the strongest winds and heaviest rains remaining offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. For those reason, a tropical warning has not been issued for southwestern Mexico at this time. The official intensity forecast follows a blend of the HCCA, HWRF, and ECMWF models intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.5N 106.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.1N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 20.1N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.3N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 23.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z 22.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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