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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-08-27 04:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270256 CCA TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CORRECTED STATUS AT 12 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 93.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-08-27 04:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270255 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory. Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water, no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland, more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period, the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA. Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 93.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-08-26 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262051 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Laura has continued to rapidly strengthen today with recent visible satellite imagery revealing a very distinct 25 nautical- mile-wide eye embedded in a symmetric central dense overcast. The upper-level outflow has also become well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that is still investigating the hurricane has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 136 kt and SFMR winds of 121 kt in the northeast eyewall. These data support an initial intensity of 125 kt, which is an increase of 55 kt over the past 24 hours. The minimum pressure has fallen to around 947 mb. The well-defined eye is now within range of the NWS Lake Charles WSR-88D radar, and hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates began at 1900 UTC (2 PM CDT) and will continue through landfall and beyond overnight. Laura still has about 12 hours remaining over the warm waters of the northwest Gulf of Mexico waters, but increasing southwesterly shear around the time of landfall and the possibility of an eyewall replacement could result in some fluctuations in intensity this evening, but Laura is expected to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane through landfall tonight. Although rapid weakening is expected on Thursday as Laura moves inland, the hurricane is expected to bring a swath of damaging winds well inland over western Louisiana and extreme eastern Texas. The cyclone or its remnants are forecast to move off Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend and there remains some possibility that Laura will re-intensify as a tropical cyclone offshore of the United States east before it merges with a frontal boundary later in the forecast period. Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Laura is moving northwestward at about 13 kt. Laura is nearing the western extent of a mid-level ridge that is located over the southeastern United States. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward this evening and northward on Thursday between the ridge and a weak trough over the south-central United States. By Friday the cyclone should turn northeastward and then east-northeastward as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance continues to be in good agreement through 72, but there are some forward speed differences thereafter. The new NHC track is very close to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Laura is a large hurricane and users are reminded to not focus on the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin this afternoon into Thursday from far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 27.9N 92.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-08-26 22:49:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 184 WTNT23 KNHC 262049 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 92.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 92.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.7N 93.6W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.3N 85.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 43.2N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 51.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 92.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-26 22:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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