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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-08-24 22:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242046 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 88.9W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.3N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 30.8N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-08-24 22:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has improved somewhat with deep convection remaining over the center, and an increase in banding over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Earlier aircraft and scatterometer data, however, indicated that there has been little change in strength today, and the initial intensity remains 50 kt. These observations have shown the the stronger winds are located in the convective band well east and southeast of the center, and that the system currently lacks an inner core. This is likely the reason that Laura has not been able to strengthen while it has moved over water today. The aircraft also reported a fairly stable minimum pressure of 1001-1003 mb during its mission this morning and early afternoon. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. Once Laura moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, a combination of warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear should allow for steady strengthening. The latest iterations of the global and regional hurricane models continue to show significant deepening while Laura traverses the Gulf of Mexico, and a period or rapid strengthening is possible once an inner core is able to organize. The statistical guidance is again on the lower side of the intensity forecast envelope while the HWRF and CTCI models bringing Laura to major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast is again between these solutions and is close to the consensus aids. The initial motion estimate is 290/16 kt. A deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to build westward during the next day or so. By early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough over the south-central United States is forecast to erode the western portion of the ridge, which should cause Laura to turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast. After landfall, Laura or its remnants are expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve over the eastern U.S. on days 4 and 5. The latest runs of the dynamical models are in a little better agreement, but the 1200 UTC ECMWF ensemble mean is located considerably left of its deterministic run, indicating that uncertainty regarding the track forecast remains. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 60 h is around 90 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. The new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of storm surge and hurricane watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's 2 to 3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch has been issued for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from Port Bolivar, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch has been issued. Additional hurricane watches may be needed farther south along the Texas coast if the track forecast shifts toward the south and west tonight and Tuesday. 4. Tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall are expected across central and western Cuba through tonight. These rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 21.7N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-24 22:44:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 619 WTNT23 KNHC 242044 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS AND LAKE BORGNE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS AND FROM MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND LAS TUNAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA... CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 82.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.5N 92.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 36.1N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-24 19:56:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241756 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Special Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco continues to weaken as the deep convection has been stripped away from the center since this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system has reported peak 925 mb flight level winds of 38 kt. Although there have been a few recent higher SFMR measurements that are due to rain contamination, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed only a small area of 30-35 kt winds. Based on these data the initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt and a special advisory has been issued to update the short-term intensity forecast and discontinue warnings for the Gulf coast. The showers and thunderstorms generating the tropical storm force winds to the northeast of Marco's center are forecast by most models to gradually dissipate through this evening. Based on how quickly the vortex has been spinning down and the anticipated decrease of convection, it is reasonable to assume that sustained tropical storm force winds will no longer reach the northern Gulf coast. Therefore, all wind and surge warnings for the Gulf coast associated with Marco have been discontinued. Shortly after the cyclone reaches the Gulf Coast later tonight it should degenerate to a remnant low, with this low dissipating inland within a couple of days. The latest intensity forecast was adjusted downward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous NHC forecast thereafter. Marco has been moving slowly all day, and an initial motion estimate is now 320/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. As the cyclone continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected as the system becomes steered in the low level flow. The latest forecast track was adjusted slightly northward through 12 h, but remains the same as the previous one until the system dissipates. This special advisory package replaces the 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and lingering coastal flooding are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast through this evening. For information on these hazards see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week, and tropical cyclone wind and surge watches and warnings could be issued for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1800Z 28.7N 88.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-24 19:54:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 044 WTNT24 KNHC 241754 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1800 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LINGERING COASTAL FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM MARCO ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR INFORMATION ON THESE HAZARDS SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST LATER TODAY FOR TROPICAL STORM LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 88.6W AT 24/1800Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.4N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.9N 95.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 88.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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