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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-08-25 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251456 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING AREAS INSIDE THE PORT ARTHUR HURRICANE FLOOD PROTECTION SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS AND FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SARGENT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FREEPORT TEXAS TO SAN LUIS PASS * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 100SE 30SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 87.0W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.6N 89.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 28.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.5N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.1N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.2N 92.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 40.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-08-25 10:59:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250858 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Satellite images show that Laura is becoming better organized. Now that the center is clear from Cuba, very deep convection has developed into a ragged, pulsing central dense overcast, with a large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The intensity is kept at 55 kt, matching the satellite estimates and a blend of the earlier flight-level and SFMR reconnaissance data. Hurricane Hunter missions from both the Air Force and NOAA should be in the storm within a couple hours to help obtain a new estimate. After a westward jog earlier, Laura is estimated to be moving west-northwestward again or 290/15. The synoptic situation consists over a large ridge near the southeastern United States and a weakness in the ridge over Central Texas due to an inverted trough. Laura should gradually gain latitude and turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next two days while it is steered between those two features, move northward late this week through the southern United States, then move quickly eastward across the eastern U.S. over the weekend as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. The majority of the guidance has shifted a notable distance to the west on this run, perhaps due to a weaker trough over Texas and a more westward initial position of Laura (possibly due to persistent northerly mid-level shear). The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments could be required later today. Laura is forecast to move over the very warm and deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, with similar or lighter shear conditions through the next couple of days. Now that an inner core appears to be trying to form, conditions appear ripe for at least steady intensification, and rapid intensification is becoming more likely before landfall. In fact, almost all of the explicit guidance models, save the statistical-dynamical models, are showing a period of rapid strengthening at some point during the next couple of days. Thus, the new NHC forecast is higher than the last one, but not as high as the most of the regional hurricane models since shear could increase just before landfall. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 48 h is around 80 miles and the average intensity error is close to 15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Laura is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast as a hurricane late Wednesday and early Thursday. Do not focus on the details of the official forecast given the typical uncertainty in NHC's 2-to-3 day track and intensity predictions. In addition, storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards will extend well away from Laura's center along the Gulf Coast. 2. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, within the next 48 hours, and a storm surge watch is in effect for these areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible by late Wednesday from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon, and a hurricane watch is in effect. Hurricane Warnings will likely be issued for a portion of that area later today. 4. The threat of widespread flash and urban flooding, along with small streams overflowing their banks, will be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday from far eastern Texas, across Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor-to-isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 22.9N 85.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-08-25 10:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 413 WTNT23 KNHC 250856 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR TO SAN LUIS PASS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO FREEPORT TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO FREEPORT TEXAS * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY TO ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......150NE 140SE 30SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.8N 87.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.1N 90.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 92.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 93.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 93.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 39.0N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-08-25 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250839 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Marco has been devoid of any significant convection for at least 12 hours, and ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data around 0239Z suggested that Marco might have degenerated in a north-to-south elongated trough. Based on this information, Marco has been downgraded to post-tropical remnant low. Brisk southwesterly vertical wind shear of 30 kt is forecast to increase to near 35 kt in 24 hours, which should prevent the redevelopment of deep convection near the center. Marco's remnants are expected to move generally westward along or just south of the southern coast of Louisiana for the next 24 hours or until dissipation occurs. This is the last forecast/advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Marco. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 28.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/1800Z 28.8N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marco Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-08-25 10:39:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 400 WTNT24 KNHC 250839 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 91.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 91.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 90.7W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.8N 92.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 91.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS MARCO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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