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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110843 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 135SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 113.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-11 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 346 WTPZ44 KNHC 110240 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 The last few visible images before sunset showed that while Elida had developed a faint eye, recent microwave data suggest the eyewall is open on the north and northwest sides. Nonetheless, the system is still on a strengthening trend, and the latest wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the latest TAFB/SAB intensity estimates. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. The biggest change to report is that most of the guidance are showing this motion continuing (instead of a westward turn) or even a more poleward trend in a few days due to a mid-latitude trough. It is uncertain how vertically deep Elida will be at that point, but there is even a low-level weakness in the model fields, suggesting that a shallower Elida would still feel that trough. Consequentially, the new NHC official forecast is shifted roughly 90 n mi to the north by day 4, with continuity preventing a larger change. The forecast is still on the southern end of the guidance envelope, so further northward adjustments could still be required overnight. The hurricane has less than a day to further intensify before it then moves over cooler waters, which should start to weaken Elida. In a couple of days, a faster weakening is shown than the last advisory since the cyclone is more likely to cross over cooler waters more quickly than previously anticipated due to the northward track change, along with additional shear. Likewise, the post-tropical timing is also accelerated to day 3, which is consistent with the latest GFS/ECMWF simulated satellite data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 112.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-11 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110238 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 112.1W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 113.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 116.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.9N 118.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.3N 121.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 112.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-10 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 102033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida continues to gradually gain strength. Satellite images show that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and curved bands that surround that feature. Recent microwave images show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it from completely closing off. The satellite intensity estimates have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane. The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island. The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional strengthening seems likely during that time period. After that, however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening trend. Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C waters. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days. Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for another couple of days. After that time, the models diverge with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough. Conversely, the HWRF, UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-08-10 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 102032 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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