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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 24

2020-08-03 04:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 030242 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD FROM SMITH POINT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND * CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-08-02 22:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 022057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 The earlier intense recent burst has waned since this morning, but the large convective cell has persisted. At the peak of the activity around 1500Z, several small patches of Doppler velocities of 90-96 kt were co-located with the pronounced mid-level circulation that was evident in the Melbourne radar reflectivity data. However, these intense wind speed values were short-lived for only about 20 minutes and, thus, were not considered to representative of Isaias' tangential wind field. Since that time, the cyclone has become more steady state with Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicating surface winds in the 56-63 kt range. Therefore, the initial intensity of 60 kt is an average of these values. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is still moving toward the north-northwest or 345/08 kt. The latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias moving north-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge tonight and turning northward by Monday morning, all the while remaining offshore of the coast from east-central Florida to Georgia. By Monday night, Isaias is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate toward the Carolinas, reaching the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and New England by early Wednesday. The new NHC forecast track during the first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast. Isaias will continue to move slowly over the warm Gulfstream waters for the next 36 h or so. Despite unfavorable vertical shear conditions of around 25 kt, Isaias is expected to maintain its current intensity until landfall, and could restrengthen to hurricane status in 24-36 h when the vertical shear vector is forecast to switch from westerly to southwesterly which would align the shear along the direction of storm motion. Some baroclinic interaction is expected on days 2-3 when Isaias will move into the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak, which is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model, which agree well with the GFS and ECMWF model intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of 2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday night. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, are expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the U.S. East Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic. 4. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, including the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound, as tropical storm force winds are possible in these areas on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued tonight and Monday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and New England states Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-08-02 22:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 022044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...DELAWARE BAY...LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 79.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 22

2020-08-02 16:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 021458 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 Another recent burst of deep convection has recently developed northeast of the center, which has resulted in Isaias making a slight northward jog. An impressive mid-level circulation has developed within the strongest thunderstorm cluster, along with rare reflectivity values of 55-60 dBZ for a tropical cyclone. The Melbourne, Florida, Doppler weather radar has been indicating patches of velocity values of 65-66 kt at around 10,000 ft just north of the center, which equates to 58-59 kt surface winds. For now, the intensity will remain at 55 kt since previous convective bursts have not persisted for more than a couple of hours at best. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Isaias later today. Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is now moving toward the north-northwest or 340/07 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so as Isaias moves into a weakness that has developed in the Bermuda-Azores ridge over north Florida and off the Georgia coast seen in 02/1200Z upper-air data. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by all of the global models by Monday morning, followed by a faster forward motion toward the northeast by Monday afternoon and evening when the cyclone will be influenced by southwesterly steering flow ahead of a strong eastward-moving mid- to upper-level trough. Continued northeastward acceleration across the mid-Atlantic and New England states is expected on days 3 and 4. The global models continue to show little cross-track difference, but still have significant along-track differences with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF being the slowest . Since the preponderance of the model guidance is slower than the GFS solution, the new official forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, and lies near the previous advisory track after 12 h. Isaias will remain over warm Gulfstream waters where water temperatures are near 30 deg C. Despite very unfavorable vertical shear conditions of 25-30 kt the past couple of days, the cyclone has managed to hold together, which is an indication that the system has a deep, well-formed vertical circulation. While some slight intensification is possible if the shear decreases, the official forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady until landfall occurs in the Carolinas in 36 hours or so. Some baroclinic interaction with the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone in 48-72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday and will reach the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North Carolina within the warning area Monday and early Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge is possible from Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. A Storm Surge Warning may be needed for a portion of this area later today, and residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek along and near the path of Isaias along the U.S. East Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the North Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible on Tuesday. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 26.9N 79.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-08-02 16:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 535 WTNT24 KNHC 021450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 79.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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