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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-12 10:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120834 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery over the past several hours shows that the deep convection associated with Elida has been shrinking in coverage, while earlier microwave data revealed that the low-level center is on the southern edge of the convection. All of the available Dvorak data-T numbers have been on the decline tonight, and there remains a large spread in the Dvorak CI numbers, ranging from about 50-75 kt. The initial advisory intensity has been set to 65 kt, which is essentially a blend of the TAFB and SAB CI numbers along with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate. Elida is now moving over water temperatures below 24C, and the cyclone is heading towards even cooler waters. In addition, the cyclone's surrounding environment is expected to become increasingly drier and more stable over the next 24 h. These factors should cause Elida to rapidly weaken over the next day or so, with the cyclone expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today. After 24 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase, which should help to dissipate any remaining deep convection associated with Elida around that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the various consensus aids through the period of rapid weakening, and is similar to the previous forecast. Elida is now moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through today, as the cyclone moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. By tonight, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Elida to turn northwestward with some additional slowing of its forward speed. This new motion should continue until the system becomes a remnant low. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous and is near the well-clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 23.0N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-12 10:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120833 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.7W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 119.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.8N 120.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.9N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 122.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-12 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120236 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation. A timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level center is located a little south of recent position estimates using visible satellite imagery. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt. The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed toward significantly cooler waters. In addition, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening over the next 24 to 36 hours. Elida is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep convection. The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the various consensus aids. Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. The cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After that time, a trough located well west of southern California is expected to weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down and turn northwestward. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the previous forecast was required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-12 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 120235 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 116.0W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-12 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 913 WTNT41 KNHC 120233 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt. By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus mean. The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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