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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-10 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 107.4W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.6N 112.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 124.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.1N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 107.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-09 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the 18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA, in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance envelope at the longer range times. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-09 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-09 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at 40 kt. The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5. This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about 2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble. Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend. In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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