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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and since it is over SSTs of 22-23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will return. As a result, the system has become a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory on Elida. The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is heading toward even cooler waters and a more stable environment. Continued weakening is therefore expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Friday morning. The initial motion estimate is 315/8 kt. A low- to mid-level trough located to the northwest of the cyclone has caused a break in the subtropical ridge. This has allowed the system to turn northwestward, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. The global model guidance continues to suggest that the low-level center will decelerate as the mid-level circulation is pulled northward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again shows a slower forward motion than the global model trackers. This is the last NHC advisory on Elida. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 24.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-08-13 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130235 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 120.2W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 120.2W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 120.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ELIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-08-12 22:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 122041 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 45.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 45.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.2N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 59.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-08-12 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122036 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida's last remaining deep convection dissipated just after the issuance of the previous advisory, brought on by cold ocean water of only 22-23 degrees Celsius. Of the two ASCAT passes near the cyclone today, neither caught the likely area of strongest winds. Therefore, the maximum winds are lowered to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective estimates between 45-55 kt and objective numbers between 30-40 kt. Cold water and increasing shear should continue Elida's quick weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, barring the unlikely chance that deep convection redevelops. The remnant low is then forecast to dissipate in 48 hours in accordance with global model guidance. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. A low- to mid-level trough extending southwest of California, which has caused a break in the subtropical ridge, is expected to allow Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward soon. This forecast reasoning has not changed, however one change to the new NHC track forecast is that it is not as fast as is being shown by the model trackers. Global model fields suggest that Elida's low- to mid-level circulation will get pulled northward by increasing shear (which is reflected by the model trackers), leaving the surface circulation to the south. Given this discrepancy, the NHC forecast is to the south of most of the guidance to account for the actual location of the surface center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-08-12 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 119.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 119.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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