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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-12 16:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121442 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle. However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of the various consensus models. The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time. Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 121442 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-12 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 121432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-12 11:00:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120900 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 After an earlier burst of deep convection near the center and in the western semicircle of the circulation, overall thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat. This is likely due to the entrainment of mid-/upper-level dry air as noted in GOES-16 high-resolution mid- and upper-level water vapor imagery, in conjunction with some modest southeasterly vertical wind shear. The latest subjective and objective Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB/SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT of 30 kt and 33 kt, respectively, support maintaining an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression continues moving a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. By 24 h, all of the global models are in decent agreement that a slight weakness will develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn more toward the west-northwest and then continue that motion through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no significant track changes were made. The aforementioned unfavorable conditions of dry air entrainment and southeasterly shear are expected to give way to more conducive environmental conditions by 24 h when the cyclone will begin to move underneath the center of a synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone. This will result in the shear decreasing to near zero, along with a pronounced improvement in the upper-level outflow pattern. The much lower shear conditions should also reduce the amount of dry air entrainment, while allowing for some moistening of the surrounding environment to occur. These more favorable conditions are expected to persist through at least the 60-h period, and thus slow but steady strengthening is forecast during that time. By 72 h and beyond, the global models and regional models show the system moving out from underneath the positive influence of the upper-level anticyclone, encountering moderate southerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is expected to induce gradual weakening. It should be noted that during the 48-60 h period when the shear will be the lowest and sea-surface temperatures will be near 28.5C, there is a narrow window of opportunity where the intensity could peak higher than what is currently indicated. The new NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and is slightly higher than the consensus intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA due to anticipation of the very favorable low-shear conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 12.2N 42.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-12 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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