je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130839 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 Satellite images over the past several hours have shown a gradual increase in the organized deep convection associated with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass revealed that the low level circulation has become well-defined. Based on these data, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Ten-E. The ASCAT wind data indicated 25-30 kt peak winds. This along with Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial advisory intensity of 30 kt. It should be noted that the ASCAT data showed that there were a few 35 kt wind vectors about 45 n mi west of the center of the system and these are presumed to be rain-contaminated. The depression is expected to be in a marginally conducive environment for strengthening throughout the 5-day forecast period. Although the system is forecast to remain over sufficiently warm waters, SHIPS guidance suggests that moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear will prevail over the system for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone may encounter some drier air which would also inhibit strengthening. The official forecast shows only slight strengthening in the next 24 h, and no change in intensity thereafter. This is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance. The cyclone's motion is 285/06 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to steer the system slowly westward over the next few days and the track model guidance is in decent agreement through that time. By 72 h, the steering flow appears to collapse, and as a result the depression is forecast to move very slowly during the 3-5 day period. Once the steering flow becomes weak the models diverge a bit with some moving the cyclone northwestward, while others move it west-southwestward. Regardless of this spread, the majority of the models agree that the cyclone will move very little during that time. The official forecast track splits the difference in the model solutions beyond day 3, and closely follows the TVCE and TVCX consensus aids throughout the 5-day forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 13.5N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-13 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 130838 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 129.1W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 129.1W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 128.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 130.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.9N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.8N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.7N 134.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.8N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 14.2N 135.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 129.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-13 10:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 364 WTNT21 KNHC 130838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 47.9W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130236 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery and a fortuitous ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass indicate that the center of circulation is a little farther south than previously estimated and remains well to the southeast of the deep convective canopy. The latest UW-CIMSS shear analysis confirms modest east-southeasterly shear impinging on the cloud pattern. A compromise of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the aforementioned scatterometer pass retains the initial intensity at 30 kt. Large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance still show the shear abating soon which should result in gradual strengthening with a peak intensity of 50 kt in 2 days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with a deep-layer trough stretching over the southwestern Atlantic. This change in the upper wind pattern should induce steady weakening. A number of the global models indicate that the cyclone will become a remnant low by day 4 and open up into a trough by day 5 which is certainly possible. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory but indicates a more expeditious weakening trend beyond the 48 hour period in deference to the global model solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/13 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric easterly flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the depression. The song remains the same...there is virtually no change to the forecast philosophy and only a slight shift to the left of the previous track forecast was made in response to the southward initial position adjustment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 130235 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 47.1W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 58.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.5N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 25.6N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [555] [556] [557] [558] [559] [560] [561] [562] [563] [564] [565] [566] [567] [568] [569] [570] [571] [572] [573] [574] next »