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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-09 10:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season. Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night, and further reformations of the center will be possible until the system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h. Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet, only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-09 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-09 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 08 2020 Deep convection associated with the area of disturbed weather that we have been monitoring to the south of Mexico has persisted for more than 12 hours. Directional ambiguities from an earlier ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass suggest that the system has a closed circulation, and recent satellite imagery shows that convection is increasing near the estimated center while banding features are becoming better defined. The system has sufficient convective organization and circulation to be designated as a tropical depression, and advisories are being initiated. Based on a ship report and the scatterometer data, the current intensity is estimated to be near 30 kt. Upper-level outflow from the tropical cyclone is becoming better defined, and the system will be moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment through early next week. With these conducive factors for strengthening, the cyclone is likely to become a tropical storm rather soon and a hurricane within a couple of days. The official forecast is similar to the model consensus but given the anticipated environment, this may be conservative. By days 3-5, cooler waters will likely lead to weakening. Although the center is not yet very well defined, my best estimate of initial motion is a fairly climatological 295/12 kt. The steering pattern looks quite straightforward for the next several days. A pronounced 500 mb ridge extending westward from the southwest United States over the Pacific should maintain a generally west-northwestward track for much of the forecast period. Late in the period, as the cyclone weakens, the shallower circulation should turn westward with the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is mainly a combination of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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depression
Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-09 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090232 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.6N 104.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 109.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.8N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 122.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 102.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Gains Forecast for UAE Cosmetics Market
2020-08-08 22:36:30| Happi Breaking News
Fragrances and deodorants hold the largest share.
Tags: market
gains
forecast
cosmetics
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