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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-08-02 10:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51 kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated. Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus. Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida. The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the northwestern Bahamas through today. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week. 5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coast of South and North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 26.3N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-08-02 10:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020855 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY... NORTH CAROLINA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA * EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-08-02 04:56:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 020256 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Deep convection has increased this evening in a cluster to the east and northeast of the aircraft-observed center position. Radar data suggests a mid-level center or vorticity maximum in that area, which is between Grand Bahama and Andros Island. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isaias has not restrengthened thus far, but there is still a small window of opportunity for it to regain hurricane intensity Sunday while passing over the Gulf Stream waters. Synoptic surveillance data from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft indicate that the upper-level west-southwesterly flow over Isais will begin to increase by late Sunday. The resulting increase in shear and interaction with land should cause weakening beyond 24 hours, and the official intensity forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus. Assuming that the aforementioned mid-level feature is not the dominant center of circulation, the aircraft fixes give a motion estimate of about 310/8 kt. Isais has been moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. An approaching trough near the Ohio Valley is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward within 48 hours. After that, Isaias should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead of the trough, and move near or over the east coast of the United States. The official track forecast remains close to both the simple and corrected dynamic model consensus tracks, TVCN and HCCA respectively. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas through Sunday morning. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin late tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the east coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic early next week. 5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 25.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST 36H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-08-02 04:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 014 WTNT24 KNHC 020253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 79.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 79.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W...ON COAST MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 79.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Remnants of Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-08-02 04:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM CVT Sun Aug 02 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020238 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sun Aug 02 2020 Scatterometer data around 2130 UTC confirmed that the system north of the Cabo Verde islands no longer has a well-defined center. The scatterometer data showed that the southwest semicircle of the system consists of only light and variable winds, and the strongest winds associated with the system have decreased to around 20 kt. The system lacks deep convection and a combination of cool underlying water and a dry surrounding environment will prevent regeneration. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.5N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF TEN 12H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion forecast remnants

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