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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-08-04 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 NOAA Doppler radar data from Islip, New York (KOKX), indicated 70-kt winds just off the surface south of Long Island earlier this afternoon, along with buoy reports from New York Harbor Inlet (44065) that supported lowering the intensity to 55 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. The motion remains north-northeastward or 020/35 kt. Isaias will continue moving north-northeastward through tonight, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 12 hours or, the cyclone is expected to interact with a larger extratropical over southeastern Canada and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near western Maine. By 24 hours, Isaias is expected to transition to an extratropical low, and dissipate or become absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical low. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered consensus track models. Isaias will continue to gradually spin down and lose its tropical characteristics. The precipitation has decreased in size and also has become more stratiform in appearance, which are indications that the cyclone is gradually weakening. This downward trend should continue until Isais becomes an extratropical low in 12-24 hours. There also remains a risk of tornadoes across portions of New England this afternoon and evening Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power outages will continue to spread across New England tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. 3. The threat of tornadoes will spread into New England this afternoon and evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 42.7N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-04 22:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 042045 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF MANASQUAN INLET...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-08-04 16:59:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041459 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Doppler radar data from Dover, Delaware (KDOX), and Ft. Dix, New Jersey (KDIX) this morning continue to indicate 70-80 kt winds between 4000-7000 ft over the ocean just offshore the Delmarva peninsula and the southeastern coast of New Jersey, which would normally correspond to 65-70 kt surface winds. However, these velocity values have been collocated with only 15-25 dBZ reflectivity echoes, so the typical 80-85 percent reduction factors likely don't apply. Sustained observed surface winds of 50-55 kt have been reported, so the initial intensity will be held at 60 kt, but that is only for winds over the ocean and near the coast. Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/30 kt. The cyclone will continue to accelerate north-northeastward today and tonight within strong southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic and New England areas from the west. By 24 h, the Isaias is expected to slow down and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over Maine before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low located over southeastern Canada. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered consensus track models. As Isaias moves north-northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic coast, interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum is forecast to maintain the tropical storm's intensity longer than what typically would be expected for inland decaying tropical cyclone. The global models continue to indicate that Isaias is likely to produce widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor at 12 h remains above the standard 20-percent value in the Forecast/Advisory Product (TCMAT4). In addition to the wind threat, Isaias is expected to produce heavy rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a high risk for life-threatening flash flooding. There also remains a significant risk of tornadoes across the mid-Atlantic coast and southeastern New York this afternoon, possibly spreading into southern New England tonight. Key Messages: 1. Widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts to hurricane force are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding remains possible in Philadelphia and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. 3. Numerous tornadoes have already occurred over portions of the mid-Atlantic coast this morning. The threat of tornadoes will continue along the mid-Atlantic coast spread into New England this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 39.1N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-08-04 16:41:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041441 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE * CHESAPEAKE BAY * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 76.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 76.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 76.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 76.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-08-04 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040851 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, a few minutes after the previous advisory package was issued. Since that time, the center of Isaias has been moving quickly north-northeastward across eastern North Carolina. Now that the inner core of Isaias has moved inland, the peak surface winds have decreased despite Doppler radar data still showing an area of 75-85 kt winds aloft. The latest surface observations indicated that strong winds are occuring over the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks. Based on a blend of the available data, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt for this advisory. As the tropical storm moves northward near the Mid-Atlantic coast, interaction with a strong jet stream is likely to result in a slower-than-typical weakening rate. The global model guidance indicates that Isaias is likely to produce widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor at 12 h has been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). Isaias is forecast to weaken more quickly tonight as it moves into eastern Canada and becomes post-tropical. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low in 2-3 days, if not sooner. Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/24 kt. The cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating north-northeastward today as it is embedded in strong south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the Great Lakes region. After 24 h, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to decelerate before it is absorbed by the extratropical low. The updated NHC track forecast is near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. In addition to the storm surge and wind threats, Isaias is expected to produce heavy rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a high risk for life-threatening flash flooding. There is also a risk of tornadoes from southeast Virginia to New Jersey through midday. The risk of tornadoes will spread northward into southeastern New York this afternoon and across New England by tonight. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. 4. Tornadoes have already occurred over portions of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia overnight. The threat of tornadoes will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast today and then across New England by tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 36.3N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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