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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-08-05 10:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050838 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 Surface observations indicate that Isaias continues to gradually weaken over southeastern Quebec. There have been a couple of observing sites with marine exposure along the St. Lawrence River that have reported winds of around 35 kt within the past few hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at that value for this advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken today, and the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada on Thursday. The cyclone has begun to decelerate and is now moving 015/24 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should continue on a general north-northeastward motion with an additional decrease in forward speed over the next 12-24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to previous advisory and is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model guidance. This is the last NHC advisory on Isaias. Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center at: https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 47.5N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-08-05 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 562 WTNT24 KNHC 050837 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 480SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 72.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.5N 71.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-08-05 04:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050246 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and southeastern Canada. Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the southeast of the center. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow. After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h. The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt. A continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the larger low. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance models. While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning can be discontinued along the coast of the United States. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more hours. 2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. 3. The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 45.3N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050245 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS TO STONINGTON MAINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N 72.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-04 23:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 042132 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SUMMARY CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SANDY POINT...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY POINT NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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