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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-08-13 22:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132037 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has gone by. Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.5N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 20.9N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 132034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 52.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.9N 55.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 57.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 50.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-08-13 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020 The depression's center had been tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection not too long ago, but the convection has begun to wane a bit and has been pushed off to the southwest of the center due to modest northeasterly shear. Satellite classifications suggest that the cyclone is close to becoming a tropical storm, but there is no definitive data to explicitly support that, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the system for the next 2-3 days, but the thermodynamic environment should be favorable enough to possibly allow the depression to just sneak across the tropical storm threshold. The shear begins to abate after about 3 days, but then the atmosphere becomes drier and more subsident, which may make it difficult to maintain organized deep convection. The cyclone also appears to fail to detach from the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which does not favor a strengthening system. Therefore, no changes were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which remains near or just above the intensity consensus. All in all, there is high confidence that the cyclone will not strengthen significantly, but there is much less confidence in whether it will actually become a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 280/8 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to maintain a general westward heading through day 5, but the cyclone could oscillate anywhere between southwest and northwest at times. The system will be slowing down considerably in a couple of days, with a forward speed essentially around 2 kt from day 2 to day 5. Except for the GFS, the other models have slowed down and shifted a little farther south on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend. Because of the expected slow motion, however, the new forecast ends up being not too far from the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-08-13 22:34:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 132034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 132.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 133.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 134.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.9N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 130.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-08-13 16:53:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131453 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 A just-received ASCAT overpass showed an area of 35-40 kt winds about 70 n mi north of the center of Tropical Depression Eleven, and based on this the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Josephine with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern associated with Josephine has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with a ragged central convective feature and a weak band in the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/13 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next several days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more after 72-96 h, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track and a little to the left of the consensus models. Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next 24- 36 h as Josephine moves through an environment of light vertical wind shear. After that, the cyclone is expected to encounter moderate to strong southwesterly shear as it approaches an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic, which should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 72 h based on the current intensity. After 72 h, it shows weakening similar to the previous forecast, but not as drastic as the global models that show the storm degenerating to a tropical wave before 120 h. Josephine is the earliest tenth tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, with the next earliest tenth storm being Tropical Storm Jose on August 22, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.7N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.5N 51.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 53.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 58.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 19.9N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 21.3N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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