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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-12 04:31:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 41.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 40.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 112035 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida has not changed significantly in organization since the last advisory, as the storm continues to have a small cloud-filled eye inside a symmetric central dense overcast. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are slightly lower than the previous advisory, but they have not decreased enough to justify lowering the initial intensity yet. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- northwestward for the next 36 h or so. After that, the guidance is in better agreement that Elida should turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed due to interaction with an upper-level low off of the coast of California. There is little change to the forecast track, which lies near the various consensus models, from the previous advisory. Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 23C water in 24 h and 22C in 48 h. This should lead to rapid weakening beginning in the next 6-12 h, with the global models forecasting the system to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and calls for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in just over 24 h, degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 22.1N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-11 22:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 112035 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 115.4W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.6N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.6N 120.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 45SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.7N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112032 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data from earlier in the day have shown that the area of low pressure NHC has been monitoring over the tropical Atlantic has developed a less-elongated circulation with a well-defined center. For the most part, deep convection has persisted with the system since about this time yesterday, save a brief period of warming cloud tops this morning. The low now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven with 30-kt winds, in line with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving westward, or 280/14 kt, to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic. This pattern is expected to evolve rather quickly, with a break developing in the ridge over the central Atlantic by 48 hours. This change should allow the depression to begin making more poleward progress, moving west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of the forecast period. The track models are in good agreement on this scenario, as well as the system's forward speed, and bring the center of the cyclone near or just to the north of the northern Leeward Islands in 4-5 days. This first NHC forecast lies just to the north of the multi-model consensus cluster through day 3, out of respect for the northern-lying ECMWF model, and then is close to HCCA on days 4 and 5. Conventional satellite imagery and Saharan Air Layer analyses suggest that the center of the depression is being shielded from much drier air to its north and west. However, as has been the case for a few days, at least 15 kt of easterly shear has been pushing deep convection to the western side of the circulation. This shear is expected to decrease over the next day or two, which should allow for gradual strengthening to begin by 36 hours, and a peak in the cyclone's intensity should occur in about 3 days. For this period, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above HCCA and the IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, westerly or southwesterly shear is forecast to develop and increase to 20-30 kt by days 4 and 5, which is likely to induce significant weakening. In fact, it's notable that the conditions become hostile enough that the global models are showing the system opening up into a trough near the northern Leeward Islands by day 5, which is a plausible alternate scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 11.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-08-11 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 112032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 40.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 39.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.0N 42.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.4N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.9N 49.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 51.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.4N 54.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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