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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-08-29 13:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291158 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Special Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the 0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130 kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that before landfall occurs. The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than the previous forecast. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has also been adjusted slightly. No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data. Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700 AM CDT) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1200Z 28.5N 89.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-08-29 13:57:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1200 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291156 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1200 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W AT 29/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 89.6W AT 29/1200Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 89.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-29 10:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290859 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The depression continues to slowly organize this morning, with a distinct curved band stretching along the southeastern quadrant of the low-level circulation. However, the deep convection that was closer to the center earlier has recently been sheared off to the northeast due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt respectively. The latest objective ADT guidance was a bit higher at T2.4/34 kt. Taking a blend of these estimates, the intensity was held at 30 kt for this advisory, though the depression appears close to becoming a tropical storm. The depression is beginning to gradually accelerate, with the estimated motion now at 050/13 kt. A strong deep-layer trough will continue to steer the depression to the northeast in the short-term with increasing forward motion. After the system becomes a post-tropical cyclone, it is forecast to gradually pivot to the north and then northwest before dissipating in 72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is a touch faster than the previous one, following the latest consensus track guidance. While vertical wind shear is expected to increase quite dramatically over the next 24-36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing should offset this negative factor and allow at least steady intensification in the short term especially as the cyclone accelerates. After 24 hours, the system will be crossing into much cooler sea-surface temperatures, and extratropical transition will likely be ongoing as the system merges with an advancing frontal boundary. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA consensus aid closely, and is just a bit stronger in the short-term helped by the fast forward motion, with a peak intensity of 50-kt just before extratropical transition occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 34.0N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-08-29 10:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290859 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16 satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of 120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft observation. The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic reasoning. The subtropical ridge oriented east-west along 30N-31N across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to remain intact through the forecast period with only minor shifts in the location and strength of the ridge. As a result, Ida should continue to move northwestward toward the southeastern Louisiana coast today, followed by a gradual turn toward the north tonight after landfall. On Monday, the hurricane is expected to move northeastward across the Tennessee Valley when Ida moves north of the ridge axis. Impacts and hazards will arrive well before the eye of the hurricane makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin later this morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory track. Ida will remain over waters with high oceanic heat content for another 6 hours or so. Thereafter, the heat content will drop sharply to less than half of the current value of more than 100 units. However, some additional strengthening is expected until landfall occurs. After Ida moves inland tonight, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, entrainment of drier air, and some increase in westerly vertical wind shear. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 28.0N 89.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA 24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-08-29 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290856 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

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