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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-09-14 16:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 141447 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 22 8(30) 2(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 58 3(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAVANNAH GA 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 31.4, -81.3 with movement NNE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 3
2016-09-14 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...JULIA MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 81.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 81.3 West. Julia is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days. Julia is likely to meander near the northern Georgia or southern South Carolina coastlines through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Julia is expected to become a tropical depression overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along portions of the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina today. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the immediate coastline of South Carolina from Georgetown southward, and 2 to 4 inches near Savannah, Georgia. Isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches are possible along the immediate coast of South Carolina. Julia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches elsewhere along the coast from far northeast Florida to far southern North Carolina. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in Georgia and South Carolina. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across southern South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JULIA Graphics
2016-09-14 13:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 11:41:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 14 Sep 2016 09:08:08 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 13:36:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 31.2, -81.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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