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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-09-14 13:36:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141136 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 800 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...JULIA LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 81.7W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM W OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 81.7 West. Julia is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A reduction in forward speed is expected today, and Julia is forecast to drift northward over eastern Georgia during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Julia is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily over water to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along portions of the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and stream discharges. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across northeast Florida today. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-14 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140847 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 Julia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms primarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this activity has become a little more separated from the center overnight. The strong winds that occurred during the evening along the northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast of southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting wind gusts to tropical storm force. Julia should gradually weaken during the next day or so due to continued land interaction and westerly shear. The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to weaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low on Thursday. This is supported by the global models, which show the low filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36 hours. Julia is moving northward at about 6 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern Georgia during the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near 10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 30.9N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 31.6N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 31.9N 81.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 32.1N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 32.2N 81.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-09-14 10:46:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 140846 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 4(13) 1(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 22 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 2(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) WAYCROSS GA 34 11 4(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-14 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 the center of JULIA was located near 30.9, -81.8 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIA Public Advisory Number 2
2016-09-14 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140846 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016 ...RAINBANDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 81.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM SW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of Fernandina Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 81.8 West. Julia is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A reduction in forward speed is expected today, and Julia is forecast to drift northward over eastern Georgia during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Julia is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily over water to the northeast of the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at St. Simons Island, Georgia. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within portions of the tropical storm warning area. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible elsewhere along the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina this morning. RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain near the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines through Friday afternoon. Isolated totals of 10 inches are possible. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding. Flooding may be further compounded with persistent strong onshore flow reducing river and stream discharges. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across northeast Florida today. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado is possible across coastal Georgia and southern South Carolina today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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